INSIGHTS

Duncan Donald

Mon, Nov 25


Conservative party lead extends in the polls after a lacklustre performance from Labour and Lib Dems

In the UK as the political tension grows ahead of the December 12th elections leadership debates have begun in earnest. The most public of which was midweek on ITV where contentiously they only chose to invite the leaders of the Conservative, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, spurring anger from the SNP, on the basis that Scotland was being shown a televised debate whereby its leading party would have no voice.  In what passed as a rather sombre affair, Boris’s performance seemed to be judged as the most successful in the ratings and polls, however, this was perhaps more down to the shortcomings of Labour’s Corbyn and the Lib Dems Swinson, neither of which offered any fresh impetus or really challenged the validation of Brexit itself.

 

 

Despite Jeremy Corbyn releasing the Labour parties somewhat socialist manifesto this week the Conservatives still continue to push ahead in the polls across the UK aside from Scotland where it is likely we see their representation significantly lessen.  The week saw the pound fall against most currencies as poor data borrowing and manufacturing and political pressures were felt.

 

 

Trade discussions again were at the forefront of the markets with the week starting on an optimistic foot as both parties talked of finalising phase one of the negotiations taking stock to fresh all-time highs in the earlier part of the week.  Towards the end of the week more threatening talk of additional tariffs if an agreement isn’t made from the US brought the markets lower. Markets opened higher in Asia on Monday as the seesaw of optimism points back towards a resolutive outcome.

 

As the impeachment hearing for Donald Trump entered the public domain last week with two credible witnesses giving evidence over collusion with Ukraine, the damning evidence that clearly suggests wrongdoing seems to so far show no dent in the president’s approval ratings and popularity as yet and as mentioned last week the markets seem to be unreactive to headlines on this topic.

 

This week is again scheduled to be relatively quiet, with Thanksgiving at the end of the week likely to dull the Markets. There is little in the way of Central Bank meetings or likely action so all eyes will remain firmly on global trade negotiations. 

 

The week ahead: 

 

 Monday:

  •         Ifo Business Climate – Germany

 

Tuesday:

  •         GfK Consumer Confidence – Germany
  •         Finance Mortgage Approval – UK
  •         Goods Trade Balance – US
  •         Wholesale Inventory – US
  •         Redbook – US
  •         New Home Sales – US
  •         Richmond Manufacturing Index - US

 

Wednesday:

  •         Industrial Profits – China
  •         Consumer Confidence – France
  •         Personal Spending – US
  •         Personal Income – US
  •         GDP Growth Rate 2nd Estimate – US
  •         Corporate Profits Preliminary – US
  •         EIA Crude Stock Change – US
  •         Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims – US

 

Thursday:

  •         Loan Growth – Eurozone
  •         Economic Sentiment – Eurozone
  •         Consumer Sentiment – Eurozone
  •         Industrial Sentiment - Eurozone

 

Friday:

  •         Unemployment Rate – Japan
  •         Industrial Production – Japan
  •         GfK Consumer Confidence – UK
  •         Unemployment Rate Harmonized – Germany
  •         Mortgage Lending – UK
  •         Unemployment Rate – Eurozone
  •         Chicago PMI -US

 

 


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