• Increased geopolitical pressures have been since the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil plants on Saturday, sending the oil price surging higher by a record amount.

• Global stock markets have seen corrective losses on the back of robust rallies strong in to start September.

• But equity averages have stayed resilient during the corrections, posting only modest losses.

• Here we focus on the German benchmark index, the DAX, which remains positive from both a short- and intermediate-term perspective.

DAX: Threats stays higher 

A Monday probe to the topside Friday above 12473.5, after Thursday’s whipsaw price action that saw a push up to this level, then a setback and a bounce from 12303.5 above 12299 support, sustaining upside pressures since the late August advance above key 11847.5, and despite a setback this morning, whilst above 12324.5 to keep risks higher Tuesday.

The late August move up through 11847.5 secured an intermediate-term base and an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

• We see an upside bias for 12421.5; break here aims for 12496 and 12500, maybe towards 12598.
• But below 12355.5 opens risk down to 12303.5/299 and maybe 12256.

Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 12650.

• Higher targets would be 12835 and 13000.

What Changes This? Below 11565.5 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 11480 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

You can see more from Steve Miley, Academic Dean for the London School of Wealth Management and Kylin Prime Capital Senior Investment Advisor, on FXExplained.co.uk