INSIGHTS

Steve Miley

Tue, Sep 10


Pound Rebound Intact as No-Deal Risks Ease

The British Pound has seen a robust rally against the Euro and also the US Dollar
over the past week for early September, as UK Members of Parliament took control of
Parliament and passed a bill to forces the Tory Government to extend the Brexit
negotiations beyond 31 st October, should no deal be reached beforehand.

*  This alongside the denial of the Government’s request for an early election has
calmed financial markets that were concerned that the UK would crash out of the EU
at the end of October on a "no deal" basis.

*  This is seen as a positive for the Pound, which has seen EURGBP fall, whilst
GBPUSD, as we discuss below, has seen a robust recovery to push through
important technical resistance barriers.

GBPUSD: Risks Still to the Upside

A Monday setback and then a strong rebound for a bullish outside daily pattern to a new
recovery high above 1.2354 and then 1.2381 resistances, to reinforce the earlier September
surge for an intermediate-term shift to neutral above key 1.2310 resistance, to keep risks
higher for Tuesday.

The early September push back above 1.2310 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to a
neutral theme, range seen as 1.2518 to 1.1957.

For Today:

*  We see an upside bias for 1.2385; break here aims for 1.2456 and then 1.2518.

*  But below 1.2298 opens risk down to 1.2237 and 1.2211/08, maybe 1.2158.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2518 to 1.1957.

*  Upside Risks: Above 1.2518 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for
1.2784/1.2814, 1.3000 and 1.3184.

*  Downside Risks: Below 1.1957 sees an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.1866
and 1.1755.

You can see more from Steve Miley, Academic Dean for the London School of
Wealth Management and Kylin Prime Capital Senior Investment Advisor, on
FXExplained.co.uk


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