Steve Miley

Tue, Sep 3

Euro weakness amid global trade and Brexit turmoil

*  The US Dollar stays strong across global currency markets in the wake of ongoing concerns regarding the global trade dispute between the US and China.

*  The weakening economic backdrop in Europe with German Manufacturing data slowing again on Monday highlights ongoing negative forces in Europe and keeps the Euro under downside pressures.

*  Furthermore, ongoing Brexit turmoil and a growing threat of a snap election in the UK also weighs on the pan-European currency.


*  This leaves risk for EURUSD lower.


EURUSD intermediate-term bear shift reinforced

A prod lower again after a lacklustre bounce Monday and then a plunge overnight, to reinforce Friday’s plunge through the cycle low at 1.1025 and the 1.1000 psychological/ option level to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

Furthermore, this negative prince action through 1.1025 has reinforced the alter August selloff from the tentative down trend line from June, to keep risks lower Tuesday.

For Today:

*  We see a downside bias for 1.0929/21; break here aims for .0901/ 1.0898 and maybe 1.0862.

*  But above 1.0973 opens risk up to 1.0998, maybe towards 1.1050.

Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.0839 and 1.0578.

What Changes This? Above 1.1165 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 1.1250 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.

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