Steven Miley

Tue, Aug 6

Equities Vulnerable but with an Immediate Rebound Risk

  • An aggressive plunge lower Monday for global stock markets, still reacting to heightened trade war tensions between the USA and China.
  • The main US equity indices suffered their worst session for 2019, extedning intermediate-term bear trends evident after the forceful losses that started August.
  • BUT further losses and then rebound activity overnight Monday/ Tuesday signals risks for further recovery potential today.
    Here we focus on the future on the DAX, the German benchmark average.


DAX (Sep19 contract) recovery risks

A plunge Monday through multiple supports to reinforce the significant selloff Friday and the intermediate-term bear theme, BUT a further overnight plunge and rebound has hinted at a potential base and switches immediate threat back to the upside Tuesday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 11706; break here aims for 11791, possibly towards 11900.
  • But below 11590 opens risk down to 11536, maybe 11435/423.

Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 11579.

  • Lower targets would be 11271 and 10859
  • What Changes This? Above 12260 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 12466 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.


You can see more from Steve Miley, Academic Dean for the London School of Wealth Management and Kylin Prime Capital Senior Investment Advisor, here on FX Explained