INSIGHTS

Steve Miley

Tue, Jul 9


European equity averages risks shift lower - FTSE100 bias now lower

European equity averages risks shift lower – FTSE 100 spotlight

 

  • A selloff to start this week across the major global equity averages, with European indices surrendering supports.
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  • This has been a reaction to the stronger than expected US Employment report on Friday 5th July, which has seen fading hopes of a more dovish Fed.
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  • For the FTSE 100, the break lower eases the bull theme we discussed in our last report here and sets the short-term bias for a correction lower, although intermediate-term the outlook remains bullish.
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  • Key to watch today will be the various Fed Speakers including Jerome Powell, alongside the Chairman’s testimonies to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, as detailed here in the FX Explained MacroWatch.

 

FTSE 100 bias now lower

A prod lower Monday and again this morning, to reinforce Friday’s setback through 7496 support rejecting immediate upside forces from the Thursday prod above the record high on the continuation chart at 7558.5, switching the bias to the downside Tuesday.

The bull gap to start July through 7403 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

 

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through 7464/63; break here aims for 7435.5, the top of the support gap at 7400.5.
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  • But above 7535 opens risk up to 7560.
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Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 7625.5 and 7750.

 

  • What Changes This? Below 7301 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 7245.5 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

 


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